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Follow TURFVehicle miles traveled hits 8 month low
Traffic hits new low in October, 8th month of down trend - FHWA
October was the eighth month in which the trend line for total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on US roads declined in the second dip of the great recession, according to "Travel Monitoring" data released today by FHWA Office of Highway Policy Information. The 12-month moving total (12MMT) for October 2011 at 2,963b vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is now back down to the previous low of 2,963b or 1.3% down on the recovery mini-high of 3,001b reached in February 2011.
The latest trend number is 2.5% off the November 2007 pre-crash high of 3,039b, and down to the level first reached in December 2004.
The first 2.5% downward slide in VMT from November 2007 as measured by the 12MMT lasted 18 months (2007-11 to 2009-05). There followed a half recovery of 1.25%-points over 21 months to the February 2011 mini-high.
All of that 21-month recovery has now been lost in just eight months of the double dip (2011-02 to 2011-10).
The recent or second drop has been proceeding a tad faster than the initial crash drop (1.25%*12/8 = 1.875%pa vs 2.5*12/18=1.67%pa.)
Of course there is no indication where traffic goes now.
The second dip may, or may not, have ended, but there is no indication in the 12MMT data so far of any end to the decline.
Oct on previous Oct
On the more conventional month this year on same month last year basis October 2011 saw an estimated 254b VMT vs 260b VMT Oct 2010, the 6b miles decline being 2.3%. The cumulative travel of ten months to end October this year was 2476b down 36b or 1.4% on the 2512b of the corresponding first ten months of 2010.
All categories down
A breakdown by categories of road shows all are seeing lower traffic volumes than last year but the drop is less for urban interstates than other classes. Rural traffic is down slightly more than urban.
All parts of country
All parts of the country are seeing declining traffic but the west somewhat less of a decline than the rest of the country.
Traffic volume trends data is derived from hourly traffic counts at some 4,000 permanent traffic count facilities around the country. It is based on a smaller sample size than the Highway Performance Monitoring System but gives a more immediate measure of what's happening with traffic.
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm